{ "generated_at": "2026-07-29T19:58:38.257431+00:00", "generator": "Project Helios", "disclaimer": "Helios infers development activity from public records. Confidence scores are model output, not fact. Helios does not assert the identity of any facility operator unless a direct filing establishes it. Estimates are labelled as such and must not be cited as measurements.", "site": { "project_code": "AZ-MESA-004", "jurisdiction": "Mesa", "county": "Maricopa", "site_kind": "enterprise_data_center", "site_kind_assertion": "reported", "current_stage": 7, "current_stage_label": "Operational", "current_confidence": 36.47, "total_acres": 1.2114, "first_signal_date": "2013-02-27", "latest_signal_date": "2026-07-28", "operator_status": "not_established", "summary": "1 parcel(s) totalling 1.2 acres near 4437 E HOLMES AVE, Mesa. Title of record is held by COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC. Helios has not established which organization, if any, operates or will operate a facility here.", "boundary": { "type": "MultiPolygon", "coordinates": [ [ [ [ -111.73487162098638, 33.38816859639002 ], [ -111.73487581611877, 33.38803122228174 ], [ -111.73496574915681, 33.387883619373035 ], [ -111.7349647888578, 33.38773246016768 ], [ -111.73496388335599, 33.38758984392534 ], [ -111.73563965809645, 33.3875868586718 ], [ -111.735629875443, 33.38808997820246 ], [ -111.73552749355174, 33.388090574499635 ], [ -111.73552712164923, 33.38826957748326 ], [ -111.73550864869372, 33.388284628892286 ], [ -111.73486810767533, 33.3882836928203 ], [ -111.73486912366991, 33.3882504135038 ], [ -111.73487162098638, 33.38816859639002 ] ] ] ] } }, "evidence": [ { "id": "f7088a6b-6411-466b-bf66-9cc820d9ffa4", "evidence_kind": "shell_entity_ownership", "summary": "Title is held by COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC, whose name shows single-purpose-entity characteristics (pass-through legal form (LLC)). This is a weak signal only: project-specific entities are routine in ordinary commercial real estate and imply no particular parent.", "snippet": "OwnerName = COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC", "snippet_locator": "$.features[4].attributes.OwnerName", "observed_at": "2013-02-27", "assertion_class": "inferred", "extraction_method": "pattern_rule", "polarity": "supporting", "confidence": 0.45, "human_review_status": "not_reviewed", "is_standing_condition": false, "normalized_values": { "fields": [ { "name": "owner_name", "value": "COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC", "locator": "$.features[4].attributes.OwnerName", "raw_text": "COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC", "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 0.95, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" } ], "is_standing_condition": false }, "source": { "document_id": "2f6efd07-7c10-4f43-94f2-5b714de87e97", "document_version_id": "4f91c5f4-4b77-4df5-b8c8-7edca03375aa", "source_slug": "maricopa-assessor-parcels", "source_name": "Maricopa County Assessor Parcel Layer", "agency": "Maricopa County Assessor / Maricopa County GIS", "source_url": "https://example.invalid/recorded", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:00Z", "content_sha256": "77af6d6d43febde9b56073b5a2200e2713b9331b31345f146047d2723a8a5008", "parser_version": "0.1.0", "attribution_text": "Parcel data courtesy of Maricopa County Assessor / Maricopa County GIS." } }, { "id": "7fb5ce7f-a410-4722-91a4-6d51b41d1719", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "summary": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-04526 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-06, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source.", "snippet": "PMT26-04526; COM; 4437 E HOLMES AVE; Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase", "snippet_locator": "$[52]", "observed_at": "2026-05-27", "assertion_class": "reported", "extraction_method": "structured_feed", "polarity": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "human_review_status": "not_reviewed", "is_standing_condition": false, "normalized_values": { "fields": [ { "name": "permit_number", "value": "PMT26-04526", "locator": "$[52].permit_number", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 1.0, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" }, { "name": "property_address", "value": "4437 E HOLMES AVE", "locator": "$[52].property_address", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 0.95, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" }, { "name": "permit_type", "value": "COM", "locator": "$[52].permit_type", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 1.0, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" } ], "permit_id": "13d145c7-e470-4c1b-ad00-9591404abbde", "address_match": { "apn": "14055293", "method": "address_normalized_exact", "confidence": 0.92, "normalized": "4437 E HOLMES AVE" }, "is_standing_condition": false }, "source": { "document_id": "6cb33a37-a587-4e9f-95af-a4847ee970d1", "document_version_id": "ae2d41ce-1f4e-4048-8ccc-2dc64b639b98", "source_slug": "mesa-building-permits", "source_name": "City of Mesa Building Permits", "agency": "City of Mesa", "source_url": "https://example.invalid/recorded", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:00Z", "content_sha256": "55cca827c96128ee340c6e8ac9570c08511f3a17edfa1c5f11187e55ee6c65f5", "parser_version": "0.1.0", "attribution_text": null } }, { "id": "8fa3c23d-d2ea-49e4-916d-b5813faa66a4", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "summary": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-05468 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-23, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source.", "snippet": "PMT26-05468; COM; 4437 E HOLMES AVE; Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase", "snippet_locator": "$[43]", "observed_at": "2026-07-23", "assertion_class": "reported", "extraction_method": "structured_feed", "polarity": "supporting", "confidence": 0.75, "human_review_status": "not_reviewed", "is_standing_condition": false, "normalized_values": { "fields": [ { "name": "permit_number", "value": "PMT26-05468", "locator": "$[43].permit_number", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 1.0, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" }, { "name": "property_address", "value": "4437 E HOLMES AVE", "locator": "$[43].property_address", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 0.95, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" }, { "name": "permit_type", "value": "COM", "locator": "$[43].permit_type", "raw_text": null, "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 1.0, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" } ], "permit_id": "ecdc415a-9ffc-4562-8375-3cdf3e871758", "address_match": { "apn": "14055293", "method": "address_normalized_exact", "confidence": 0.92, "normalized": "4437 E HOLMES AVE" }, "is_standing_condition": false }, "source": { "document_id": "6cb33a37-a587-4e9f-95af-a4847ee970d1", "document_version_id": "ae2d41ce-1f4e-4048-8ccc-2dc64b639b98", "source_slug": "mesa-building-permits", "source_name": "City of Mesa Building Permits", "agency": "City of Mesa", "source_url": "https://example.invalid/recorded", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:00Z", "content_sha256": "55cca827c96128ee340c6e8ac9570c08511f3a17edfa1c5f11187e55ee6c65f5", "parser_version": "0.1.0", "attribution_text": null } }, { "id": "47e7a7b8-b1e7-4c30-8a73-c73991bd4d02", "evidence_kind": "dedicated_substation_proximity", "summary": "Southern Substation tagged 69 kV lies 938 m from the site boundary, close enough for a dedicated connection to be practical. Proximity is a locational precondition, not evidence that this substation serves the site.", "snippet": "name = Southern Substation; operator = Salt River Project; max_voltage_kv = 69.0", "snippet_locator": "https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/991640108", "observed_at": "2026-07-25", "assertion_class": "calculated", "extraction_method": "geometry_operation", "polarity": "supporting", "confidence": 0.6685, "human_review_status": "not_reviewed", "is_standing_condition": true, "normalized_values": { "match_method": "substation_proximity", "operator_name": "Salt River Project", "max_voltage_kv": 69.0, "distance_meters": 938.31, "is_standing_condition": true }, "source": { "document_id": "b8abfb58-b6bf-43d9-a88d-3b29d8a9db78", "document_version_id": "ad75ee7e-5363-44ab-a65c-26f4f7b68b2f", "source_slug": "osm-power-infrastructure", "source_name": "OpenStreetMap Power Infrastructure (Overpass API)", "agency": "OpenStreetMap contributors", "source_url": "https://example.invalid/recorded", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:00Z", "content_sha256": "b780b9bfc5c677683c8cde030c3a6581404f52cfeebcce02ca795d5d2d86e7b4", "parser_version": "0.1.0", "attribution_text": "Power infrastructure data (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL." } }, { "id": "8c5b66dc-8086-4d20-9b26-b80313184041", "evidence_kind": "assessor_data_center_classification", "summary": "Maricopa County Assessor currently classifies this parcel's property use as DATA CENTERS (use code 1507).", "snippet": "PropertyUseDescription = DATA CENTERS", "snippet_locator": "$.features[4].attributes.PropertyUseDescription", "observed_at": "2026-07-28", "assertion_class": "reported", "extraction_method": "structured_feed", "polarity": "supporting", "confidence": 0.95, "human_review_status": "not_reviewed", "is_standing_condition": true, "normalized_values": { "fields": [ { "name": "land_use_description", "value": "DATA CENTERS", "locator": "$.features[4].attributes.PropertyUseDescription", "raw_text": "DATA CENTERS", "raw_unit": null, "confidence": 0.95, "assertion_class": "reported", "normalized_unit": null, "extraction_method": "structured_feed" } ], "is_standing_condition": true }, "source": { "document_id": "2f6efd07-7c10-4f43-94f2-5b714de87e97", "document_version_id": "4f91c5f4-4b77-4df5-b8c8-7edca03375aa", "source_slug": "maricopa-assessor-parcels", "source_name": "Maricopa County Assessor Parcel Layer", "agency": "Maricopa County Assessor / Maricopa County GIS", "source_url": "https://example.invalid/recorded", "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T21:30:00Z", "content_sha256": "77af6d6d43febde9b56073b5a2200e2713b9331b31345f146047d2723a8a5008", "parser_version": "0.1.0", "attribution_text": "Parcel data courtesy of Maricopa County Assessor / Maricopa County GIS." } } ], "stage_history": [ { "id": "c643dcff-2d31-4ff1-b197-c4809ba0eacc", "from_stage": 0, "from_stage_label": null, "to_stage": 7, "to_stage_label": "Operational", "effective_date": "2013-02-27", "detected_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:32.144562Z", "is_downgrade": false, "confidence": 50.07, "rationale": "Stage advanced from 0 (No known development) to 7 (Operational) at 50% confidence. Principal evidence: Assessor classifies property use as data centre; Grading or construction permit; Grading or construction permit.", "triggering_evidence_ids": [ "8c5b66dc-8086-4d20-9b26-b80313184041", "8fa3c23d-d2ea-49e4-916d-b5813faa66a4", "7fb5ce7f-a410-4722-91a4-6d51b41d1719", "f7088a6b-6411-466b-bf66-9cc820d9ffa4" ], "detection_lag_days": 4899 } ], "predictions": [ { "id": "16fe3bc8-6bf0-4198-b02a-8c50a4015b67", "calculated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:32.141616Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-28", "predicted_stage": 7, "predicted_stage_label": "Operational", "raw_score": 27.223, "confidence": 36.47, "confidence_band": "low", "positive_contribution": 27.223, "negative_contribution": 0.0, "evidence_considered": 5, "distinct_evidence_kinds": 4, "is_backtest": false, "summary": "36% confidence from 5 evidence records across 4 distinct kinds; stage 7 (Operational).", "model_name": "helios-rule-based", "model_version": "0.1.0", "explanations": [ { "rule_id": "assessor-data-center-classification", "evidence_kind": "assessor_data_center_classification", "label": "Assessor classifies property use as data centre", "detail": "Maricopa County Assessor currently classifies this parcel's property use as DATA CENTERS (use code 1507).", "base_weight": 20.0, "applied_weight": 19.0, "confidence_multiplier": 0.95, "recency_multiplier": 1.0, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "8c5b66dc-8086-4d20-9b26-b80313184041" }, { "rule_id": "dedicated-substation-proximity", "evidence_kind": "dedicated_substation_proximity", "label": "High-voltage substation in close proximity", "detail": "Southern Substation tagged 69 kV lies 938 m from the site boundary, close enough for a dedicated connection to be practical. Proximity is a locational precondition, not evidence that this substation serves the site.", "base_weight": 8.0, "applied_weight": 5.348, "confidence_multiplier": 0.6685, "recency_multiplier": 1.0, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "47e7a7b8-b1e7-4c30-8a73-c73991bd4d02" }, { "rule_id": "grading-or-construction-permit", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "label": "Grading or construction permit", "detail": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-05468 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-23, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source.", "base_weight": 2.0, "applied_weight": 1.4929, "confidence_multiplier": 0.75, "recency_multiplier": 0.9953, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "8fa3c23d-d2ea-49e4-916d-b5813faa66a4" }, { "rule_id": "grading-or-construction-permit", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "label": "Grading or construction permit", "detail": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-04526 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-06, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source. (occurrence 2, weight reduced)", "base_weight": 2.0, "applied_weight": 0.7071, "confidence_multiplier": 0.75, "recency_multiplier": 0.9428, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "7fb5ce7f-a410-4722-91a4-6d51b41d1719" }, { "rule_id": "shell-entity-ownership", "evidence_kind": "shell_entity_ownership", "label": "Single-purpose entity holds title", "detail": "Title is held by COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC, whose name shows single-purpose-entity characteristics (pass-through legal form (LLC)). This is a weak signal only: project-specific entities are routine in ordinary commercial real estate and imply no particular parent.", "base_weight": 6.0, "applied_weight": 0.675, "confidence_multiplier": 0.45, "recency_multiplier": 0.25, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "f7088a6b-6411-466b-bf66-9cc820d9ffa4" } ] }, { "id": "8e4e7cd4-2f57-4935-9ca6-04e456c71079", "calculated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:32.141686Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-28", "predicted_stage": 7, "predicted_stage_label": "Operational", "raw_score": 41.6755, "confidence": 50.07, "confidence_band": "moderate", "positive_contribution": 41.6755, "negative_contribution": 0.0, "evidence_considered": 5, "distinct_evidence_kinds": 3, "is_backtest": false, "summary": "50% confidence from 5 evidence records across 3 distinct kinds; stage 7 (Operational).", "model_name": "helios-rule-based", "model_version": "0.1.0", "explanations": [ { "rule_id": "assessor-data-center-classification", "evidence_kind": "assessor_data_center_classification", "label": "Assessor classifies property use as data centre", "detail": "Maricopa County Assessor currently classifies this parcel's property use as DATA CENTERS (use code 1507).", "base_weight": 20.0, "applied_weight": 19.0, "confidence_multiplier": 0.95, "recency_multiplier": 1.0, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "8c5b66dc-8086-4d20-9b26-b80313184041" }, { "rule_id": "grading-or-construction-permit", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "label": "Grading or construction permit", "detail": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-05468 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-23, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source.", "base_weight": 20.0, "applied_weight": 14.9295, "confidence_multiplier": 0.75, "recency_multiplier": 0.9953, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "8fa3c23d-d2ea-49e4-916d-b5813faa66a4" }, { "rule_id": "grading-or-construction-permit", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "label": "Grading or construction permit", "detail": "City of Mesa commercial building permit PMT26-04526 at 4437 E HOLMES AVE, opened 2026-03-06, status: Issued - Permit approved and issued and in inspection phase. Matched to parcels by normalized address; no coordinates in source. (occurrence 2, weight reduced)", "base_weight": 20.0, "applied_weight": 7.071, "confidence_multiplier": 0.75, "recency_multiplier": 0.9428, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "7fb5ce7f-a410-4722-91a4-6d51b41d1719" }, { "rule_id": "shell-entity-ownership", "evidence_kind": "shell_entity_ownership", "label": "Single-purpose entity holds title", "detail": "Title is held by COX COMMUNICATIONS ARIZONA LLC, whose name shows single-purpose-entity characteristics (pass-through legal form (LLC)). This is a weak signal only: project-specific entities are routine in ordinary commercial real estate and imply no particular parent.", "base_weight": 6.0, "applied_weight": 0.675, "confidence_multiplier": 0.45, "recency_multiplier": 0.25, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "f7088a6b-6411-466b-bf66-9cc820d9ffa4" }, { "rule_id": "dedicated-substation-proximity", "evidence_kind": "dedicated_substation_proximity", "label": "High-voltage substation in close proximity", "detail": "Southern Substation tagged 69 kV lies 938 m from the site boundary, close enough for a dedicated connection to be practical. Proximity is a locational precondition, not evidence that this substation serves the site.", "base_weight": 0.0, "applied_weight": 0.0, "confidence_multiplier": 0.6685, "recency_multiplier": 1.0, "polarity": "supporting", "evidence_record_id": "47e7a7b8-b1e7-4c30-8a73-c73991bd4d02" } ] } ], "scoring_model": { "name": "helios-rule-based", "version": "0.1.0", "parameters_hash": "46888dc8be8c1d3ffb00092482a839e09fbddfae9688db732ffd6cf982064079", "parameters": { "rules": [ { "rule_id": "transmission-or-substation-filing", "evidence_kind": "substation_application", "identity_weight": 25.0, "stage_weight": 25.0, "implies_stage": 3, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "transmission-filing", "evidence_kind": "transmission_filing", "identity_weight": 25.0, "stage_weight": 25.0, "implies_stage": 3, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "planning-application-data-center", "evidence_kind": "planning_application_data_center", "identity_weight": 20.0, "stage_weight": 20.0, "implies_stage": 2, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "assessor-data-center-classification", "evidence_kind": "assessor_data_center_classification", "identity_weight": 20.0, "stage_weight": 20.0, "implies_stage": 7, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "large-industrial-parcel-acquisition", "evidence_kind": "large_industrial_parcel_acquisition", "identity_weight": 10.0, "stage_weight": 18.0, "implies_stage": 1, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "backup-generator-air-permit", "evidence_kind": "backup_generator_air_permit", "identity_weight": 17.0, "stage_weight": 17.0, "implies_stage": 3, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "water-or-cooling-permit", "evidence_kind": "water_or_cooling_permit", "identity_weight": 14.0, "stage_weight": 14.0, "implies_stage": 3, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "data-center-compatible-zoning", "evidence_kind": "data_center_compatible_zoning", "identity_weight": 8.0, "stage_weight": 12.0, "implies_stage": 2, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "grading-or-construction-permit", "evidence_kind": "grading_or_construction_permit", "identity_weight": 2.0, "stage_weight": 20.0, "implies_stage": 4, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "dust-control-registration", "evidence_kind": "dust_control_registration", "identity_weight": 2.0, "stage_weight": 15.0, "implies_stage": 4, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "satellite-construction-change", "evidence_kind": "satellite_construction_change", "identity_weight": 0.0, "stage_weight": 15.0, "implies_stage": 4, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "dedicated-substation-proximity", "evidence_kind": "dedicated_substation_proximity", "identity_weight": 8.0, "stage_weight": 0.0, "implies_stage": null, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "known-developer-relationship", "evidence_kind": "known_developer_relationship", "identity_weight": 15.0, "stage_weight": 5.0, "implies_stage": null, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "shell-entity-ownership", "evidence_kind": "shell_entity_ownership", "identity_weight": 6.0, "stage_weight": 6.0, "implies_stage": 1, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "hiring-or-procurement-signal", "evidence_kind": "hiring_or_procurement_signal", "identity_weight": 15.0, "stage_weight": 20.0, "implies_stage": 7, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "conflicting-facility-classification", "evidence_kind": "conflicting_facility_classification", "identity_weight": -20.0, "stage_weight": 0.0, "implies_stage": null, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "project-cancellation", "evidence_kind": "project_cancellation", "identity_weight": 0.0, "stage_weight": -20.0, "implies_stage": null, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 }, { "rule_id": "stale-evidence-no-progression", "evidence_kind": "stale_evidence_no_progression", "identity_weight": 0.0, "stage_weight": -20.0, "implies_stage": null, "max_occurrences": 3, "occurrence_decay": 0.5 } ], "staleness_threshold_days": 900, "recency_half_life_days": 730, "diversity_caps": { "1": 45.0, "2": 70.0, "3": 88.0 }, "saturation_scale": 60.0 } }, "attributions": [ "Parcel data courtesy of Maricopa County Assessor / Maricopa County GIS.", "Power infrastructure data (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL." ] }